Canada's Breeding Herd 2.4% Smaller

August 24, 2010 — 

Statistics Canada released its estimate of July 1 pig inventories last week, which reflect continuing reductions in Canada's pork sector. Total inventories amounted to 11.781 million head, 2.4% lower than one year earlier. Canada's market herd contracted by 2% since last July and stood at 10.476 million head on July 1, 2010. Canada's breeding herd was 1.305 million head, 5% smaller this year vs. last year.

Figure 1 shows the percentage changes for the United States, Canadian and combined breeding herds. All are still far from returning to year-on-year growth, but the chart does not tell the entire story.

The combined U.S. and Canadian breeding herd on June 1/July 1 was 7.093 million head - 29,200 larger than they were on March 1/April 1 (see Figure 2). Most of that increase was due to an increase of 28,000 head for the U.S. breeding herd, but the Canadian herd actually gained 1,200 head from April to July.

If March/April in fact marks the low point for the Can-U.S. breeding herd, it would amount to an 8.9% reduction from the high water mark of Sept/Oct '07, when the combined herd reached 7.752 million head. Over that time period, the U.S. herd has fallen by 7.3% and Canada's has declined by 15.6%. That is not the full extent of Canada's liquidation, however, since it actually began back in 2005. Canada's herd has shrunk by 20% since its peak in January 2005.

Profits and potential profits (see last week's edition) certainly suggest that we may be seeing a bottom to breeding herds on both sides of the border. However, this does not mean we will see year-over-year increases any time soon. To get back to Sept/Oct '09 levels, Canada would have to add 35,000 sows this quarter and U.S. producers would have to add 87,000 sows. I would say both are highly unlikely even though we could see some growth in both countries.

Source:
National Hog Farmer, August 23
By: Steve Meyer