FAO—African Swine Fever: Challenges for Some, Opportunities for Others?

May 29, 2019 — 

The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in East Asia is likely to have a noticeable impact on meat and feed markets worldwide. The extent and speed of the spread and the number of countries affected are still uncertain. FAO monitors the outbreak, providing regular updates through its Emergency Prevention System for Animal Health (EMPRES-AH). It also provides detailed recommendations on how to curb the outbreak and assists governments in their implementation. [Source: FAO Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets by Josef Schmidhuber]

The FAO-EMPRES-AH update of 2 May suggests that ASF continues to spread within China. Overall, 28 provinces/ autonomous regions/municipalities are affected in China; more than 1 million pigs have been culled in an effort to halt the contagion. The actions taken by the country notwithstanding, ASF continues to spread. The latest FAO update notes that the disease has also extended to other countries, now affecting neighbouring countries, notably Viet Nam, Mongolia and Cambodia.

By April 2019, the disease had reached all major regions of the country, most recently also spreading into the northwestern provinces. The unabated spread of ASF poses a number of questions, relevant beyond the confines of East Asia and its pig meat market. These include the impacts on global markets, challenges to maintaining adequate meat supplies in affected countries, impacts on other types and sources of meat and protein, as well as the opportunities arising for pig meat producers in ASF-free areas.

This note attempts to address some of these issues. It looks at the impacts of the proliferation of ASF on global feed markets, focusing on feed grains and protein rich oilseeds. It attempts to distinguish between macro and micro impacts, and the effects on consumers and producers; it discusses the need to adjust farm structures and the adjustment process required to improve the biosecurity1 of pig production systems, especially in the affected countries. To read the full report about the world-wide impact of African swine fever in China, view pages 65-72 of the FAO Food Outlook Biannual Report on Global Food Markets.